5.2.13
Posted by admin at 9:05 am
Disclosure: We are short shares of NOW. Please click
here to read full disclosures.
Disclosure: We are short shares of NOW. Please click
here to read full disclosures.
Yesterday, ServiceNow’s (NOW) largest shareholder, Sequoia, filed a Form 4 disclosing its first major divestiture of NOW shares. The May 1st filing discloses a 6m share distribution that Sequoia quietly made to its limited partners on Monday (April 29th). This reduced Sequoia’s stake to 18.3m shares and transferred ownership of the 6m shares to an assortment of pension funds, endowments, and fund-of-funds that make up Sequoia’s limited partner base. While a direct share distribution partially absolves Sequoia from market timing decisions, it can place heavy selling pressure on a stock. This is because limited partners are typically not equipped to analyze individual public securities, preferring to instead sell shares immediately upon receipt. Since Monday’s 6m share distribution, NOW’s share prices has fallen by 7.8% on an average of daily volume of 2.4m. It can then be argued that this abnormal volume and price activity is the direct result of Sequoia’s distribution. As Monday’s distribution only represented 25% of Sequoia’s total ownership stake, additional forced selling may lie ahead.
Sequoia, along with JMI Equity and Greylock, was one of ServiceNow’s original venture capital investors. Sequoia first built its stake in November 2009, investing $51.6m for a 23.9m share stake. This equates to a cost base of just $2.15/share relative to NOW’s current price of $38.80. But as Fortune recently put it, “for many VC firms, getting into a hot company is easier than getting out.” Following NOW’s June 2012 IPO, Sequoia had their shares locked-up until the beginning of February. Rather than immediately distributing their shares after the lock-up expiration, Sequoia chose the hold shares through NOW’s April 25th Q1 2013 earnings release. They were rewarded as NOW shares traded to an all-time high of $43.39. While Q1 Billings were above consensus and revenue slightly beat estimates, forward-looking comments from management suggest that NOW’s growth may have topped out. On the Q1 earnings call, CFO Michael Scarpelli commented, “We’re still expecting a strong quarter in Q2. But we kind of expect going forward…Q2 to Q3 are pretty much going to be flat quarters from a bookings perspective.” The sell-side overlooked this comment, as well the weak Q3 and Q4 revenue numbers implied by full-year guidance, and issued their typical round of congratulatory research notes. Sequoia, on the other hand, decided it wanted to partly cash out.
After Wednesday’s Form 4 filing, Sequoia continues to hold 18.3m shares. As Sequoia’s limited partners are sitting on roughly 2000% paper gains, they will be eager to crystalize these profits. If a 6m distribution causes a two-day 8% correction, then further distributions may result in a similar outcome. And once the makeup of NOW’s shareholder registry completes its rotation from locked-up VCs to momentum investors and retail traders, future growth stumbles are less likely to be tolerated. This week’s Sequoia distribution, combined with the foreboding statements on the quarterly call, may finally induce a correction of NOW’s dotcom-era 16x 2013E Revenue multiple. We’ll be following the Form 4 filings closely.
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3.25.13
Posted by admin at 9:03 am
Disclosure: We are short shares of EZCH. Please click here to read full disclosures.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve shared our EZCH investment opinion in a pair of articles, outlining our belief that EZCH’s $717m market capitalization, 8.0x 2013E revenue multiple, and 32.7x 2013E GAAP P/E (adjusted to include $0.39/share of stock-based compensation) are wholly unjustified. The Bull case depends on EZCH growing well in excess of the overall router market thorough 2016, a challenge we believe is unrealistic given an avalanche of near- and long-term business risks. Customer concentration is dangerously high, newly introduced competition from Broadcom could pressure design wins, Huawei’s recent order delay proves that in-house design risk is ever present, and weak end-market demand will pressure EZCH’s self-imposed 30% revenue growth hurdle (slide 8). To justify EZCH’s almost 2x valuation premium to the S&P 500, it must overcome this hurdle each and every year through 2016. Most EZCH investors discount these risks, instead trusting a management team that has over-promised and under-delivered for years, growing the revenue by just 11% annualized between 2009 and 2012. But since some took the time to reply to our article, we feel a response is due…
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1.24.13
Posted by admin at 11:01 pm
Disclosure: We are short shares of MLNX. Please click here to read full disclosures.
Mellanox (MLNX), a stock that we’ve previously written up as a short recommendation, announced disappointing Q4 2012 results yesterday and gave catastrophic Q1 2013 revenue guidance. Though the stock initially dropped 22% after hours to $41, MLNX shares eventually rallied to $51 signifying a mere 1.4% decline for the day. Given three quarters of massive revenue declines ($157m in Q3 2012, $122m in Q4 2012, and ~$80m for Q1 2013) this is a stock that should be trading at a much lower level. With analysts having issued downgrades en masse and no longer supporting the stock with blind optimism, MLNX should reverse its intraday gains and fall to the $30s…
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10.18.12
Posted by KerrisdaleCap at 1:10 pm
Disclosure: We are short shares of MLNX. Please click here to read full disclosures.
Mellanox’s third quarter earnings report, released yesterday after the market close, has given us an opportunity to provide an update on the situation. While the Company’s third quarter top-line results were slightly above analyst estimates, beating revenue guidance by 3.5% ($156.5m actual vs. $153m consensus), the Company’s fourth quarter guidance severely underwhelmed expectations. Towards the end of the prepared remarks, Mellanox’s outgoing CFO gave Q4 revenue guidance of $145m – $150m, indicating a sequential fall in revenue from Q3. As a company that traded at 8x forward revenue just before the earnings call, the anticipated slowdown in Mellanox’s revenue is catastrophic. This is particularly true because MLNX is undoubtedly a fast-money growth stock. Even worse, Mellanox expects a Q4 increase in non-GAAP operating expense of 6% – 8%, indicating that earnings per share will be hit by a double-whammy of lower revenues and rising costs…
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4.12.11
Posted by Kerrisdale at 9:04 am
In this post, we’ll profile an interesting case study that illustrates the potential dangers of owning shares within a dual class share structure where insiders benefit from owning a majority of the class with supermajority voting control.
Recently, for instance, we profiled Urbana Corp, which has common shares and A shares. The public shareholders predominantly hold the more liquid but non-voting A shares whereas insiders own a majority of the voting common shares. In this dual share structure, insiders don’t own a majority of the company’s equity, but effectively control the company via owning a majority of the voting shares.
Sometimes, insider supermajority voting control can add value; an insider can make decisions that may be unpopular to short-term-oriented public shareholders but beneficial for the long-term interests of the company. Other times, as in the case of MIM, supermajority voting shares by insiders can substantially destroy value for public shareholders…
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